Category: weather

bookmark_borderThe Age of Loss and Damage

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The Unfolding Crisis: Climate Change, Exponential Loss, and the Imperative for Action

by Daniel Brouse

Human-induced climate change has become an exponential force in an unordered system, echoing the principles of chaos theory. Dr. Christopher Trisos of the University of Cape Town aptly describes our current predicament as the “Age of Loss and Damage.” Despite being in its early stages, the repercussions for people, other species, ecosystems, and our world are already heart-wrenching, as emphasized in a BBC interview.

As of July 2023, the Earth’s average temperature surged to 17℃, a stark contrast to the 20th-century average of 13.9℃. The gravity of the situation was underscored by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in September 2023 when he declared that “climate breakdown has begun,” following the hottest Northern Hemisphere summer in recorded human history.

This climate breakdown is characterized by the creation of feedback loops and the crossing of tipping points. The consequences are dire: plant extinction, the disappearance of vital carbon sinks, and an unrelenting acceleration of the Earth’s temperature at an exponential pace. The threat extends beyond mere inconvenience; it jeopardizes our access to food, fresh water, and breathable air, potentially rendering our planet inhospitable to human life.

The European Space Agency’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported a record-breaking average temperature of 16.38 degrees Celsius in September 2023, marking an alarming half-degree Celsius increase from the previous record set in 2020. Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo rightly emphasized the severity of these changes, not as weather statistics but as a death sentence for people and ecosystems.

The UN’s Emission Gap Report in November 2023 delivered a sobering revelation: even if countries fulfill their emissions reduction pledges, global warming is projected to exceed +3°C this century. The International Cryosphere Climate Initiative echoed this sentiment, proclaiming that a 2-degree limit is dangerously high. The stark reality is that the melting of ice, indifferent to rhetoric, demands urgent action.

New Economics: Rethinking Economic Models in the Face of Crisis

Human-induced climate change, operating exponentially in an unordered system, necessitates a paradigm shift in economic thinking. The Age of Loss and Damage integrates economics, climate science, statistics, and physics to redefine how we perceive and address the economic impacts of climate change.

Traditional economic models, particularly “integrated assessment models” (IAMs), fall short in capturing the full spectrum of climate damage. IAMs rely on a quadratic function, squaring temperature changes to calculate GDP losses, while ignoring more suitable methods like the exponential function for rapid shifts. Thierry Philipponnat’s report from Finance Watch calls for a reevaluation of economic models to address the growing disruption of climate risk in the financial system.

However, even scientists struggle to comprehend and predict the rapid acceleration of climate change. The Domino Effect, or “tipping cascades,” reveals the underestimation of social-ecological systems. Record-breaking physical and economic impacts in 2023 served as a wake-up call, highlighting the urgency of understanding and mitigating climate-related tipping cascades.

Exponential Impact on Health, Real Estate, and Infrastructure

Climate change poses significant threats to human health, impacting air quality, water supply, and contributing to extreme weather events. Deadly humid heat emerges as a major short-term risk, with mental distress affecting most survivors of climate-related disasters. Anxiety related to climate change is reported by more than two-thirds of U.S. adults who have not experienced climate disasters.

Widespread challenges in food, energy, and water security, coupled with the unsustainability of infrastructure, signal the profound implications of a warmer world. Real estate, from personal property to essential infrastructure, faces increasing risks due to climate change. Dr. Sidd Mukherjee’s insights into violent rain events and storm surges emphasize the need for proactive measures and managed retreat strategies.

Litigation and Change: A Catalyst for Transformation

The catalyst for transformative change may lie in loss and damage litigation against oil companies and governments. Comparable to the tobacco industry’s reckoning, consumers may hold oil companies accountable for misleading information about the dangers of fossil fuels. Children globally are filing lawsuits against governments, asserting their basic human rights to a clean environment.

Conclusion: Welcome to the Age of Loss and Damage

Tipping points triggered by climate change threaten to release stored CO2 in nature, with potentially catastrophic consequences. The Earth’s temperature, already at risk of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, faces the prospect of an additional 6-degree rise. This trajectory is untenable, rendering vast regions of the Earth uninhabitable.

For the first time, global warming is set to continue regardless of human actions. While we cannot reverse the damage already done, immediate cessation of greenhouse gas emissions is imperative. Simultaneously, adapting our habitat to impede nature’s greenhouse gas emissions becomes a crucial strategy.

Our climate model uses chaos theory in an attempt to adequately account for humans and forecasts a global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The Age of Loss and Damage has arrived, demanding a collective response.

What Can You Do?

Individual actions matter in the face of this crisis. Reduce pollution, transition away from fossil fuels, consume less, and embrace love and compassion. The responsibility to protect our planet rests on every individual. Here is a list of additional actions you can take.
— The Age of Loss and Damage / Brouse (2023)

How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change? / Brouse and Mukherjee (2024)
Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
Tipping Cascades, Social-Ecological Systems, and the Hottest Year in History / Brouse (2024)

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

 

bookmark_borderViolent Rain Comes to the Philadelphia Area

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by Daniel Brouse

Both the sea and air temperatures are rising. Warm air can hold more moisture than cool air. Warmer sea temperatures result in more evaporation. The increased moisture in the air moves over land causing inland deluges.

Violent Rain
Multiple factors figure into the physics of violent rain. The Momentum of Rain is p = mv (p = momentum, m = mass, v = velocity.) Part of the increasing momentum is transferred to the sides and upward increasing wind turbulence, as well as updrafts. Most of the momentum is transferred upon impact. You may notice the rain bouncing higher off the streets and sidewalks. As rain becomes more massive, it will have greater momentum when it hits the ground causing more damage.

Mass is not the only factor in violent rain. The greater the mass of the rain the more the wind turbulence is intensified. Professor Paul D. Williams of the University of Reading, UK, said, “They are chaotic (chaos theory). Turbulence is known famously as the hardest problem in physics.” In their study Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades, Prof. Williams and his team found “Climate change has caused turbulence to double in the last 40 years” and is expected to double or triple again in the next decades.

Ocean City Beach Erosion

The momentum of rain and the turbulence of wind are part of a larger equation that includes not only the mass and velocity of precipitation but also the density. The combination of these variables results in an increased intensity of the flow dynamics. Ground without groundcover will be hit harder causing more damage. The groundcover will also be hit harder causing more damage. Concrete, asphalt, solar panels, roofs, and plants will sustain more damage. More hillsides and coastlines will collapse. Atmospheric rivers are causing unusual winter flooding in the Northeastern USA and beach erosion in Ocean City, NJ (pictured / December 2023). Stormwater systems are already becoming overwhelmed. Ironically, the streets of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, UAE, flooded days before the COP28 Climate Conference. Nowhere is safe from violent rain, not even in the desert preparing for a UN meeting on the climate crisis.

Eastern North America
The Eastern US is already seeing violent rain events as far inland as Kentucky with historic flooding in both 2022 and 2023. Eastern Canada has experienced its worst hurricanes on record. Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina have suffered billions of dollars in storm damage. Homeowners insurance is becoming increasing difficult to obtain in Florida.

Vine Street Expressway Flooded

The Philadelphia Experiment
Philadelphia is 78 miles from the nearest coast; however, since 2021 Philadelphia has seen a multitude of violent rainstorms resulting in more precipitation than normally falls in an entire month falling in each episode. Besides being hit with Nor’easters and Southeastern tropical storms, Philadelphia is increasing getting deluges from the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Ida in the summer of 2021 is a good example. Because of the 85 degrees Fahrenheit Gulf of Mexico ocean temperature, Ida rapidly gained strength right before it made landfall jumping from a Category 1 to a Category 4 storm. The warm air allowed more moisture to be carried as rain. The storm was so large that it was able to pick up more moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. After destroying parts of Florida, the ocean moisture was carried inland and dumped over places like Pennsylvania and New York. Ida caused record flood damage in parts of Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “The remnants of Hurricane Ida destroyed or damaged hundreds of homes in Southeastern Pennsylvania and caused more than $100 million in public infrastructure damage across the state.” There were more deaths in the Northeastern USA than where the storm made landfall in Louisiana. The New York Times reported, “The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused flash flooding and a number of deaths and disrupted transit across parts of New York and New Jersey. The storm killed at least 43 people in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut and left more than 150,000 homes without power.” Ida’s Philadelphia area destruction included 5 deaths, 7 tornadoes, record flooding, hundreds of water rescues, and “one incredibly soggy mess.” The violent rain in Philadelphia was so extreme that the main road across the city from the Delaware River to the Schuylkill River, the Vine Street Expressway, was turned into a canal. “You could’ve swam from 22nd Street to about 15th Street,” said Justin Galbreath, a district maintenance manager at the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. As climate change intensifies, the frequency of Vine Street becoming a river will likely increase until such time as it becomes permanent.

The train derailment in Plymouth Meeting (July 17, 2023), the eleven vehicles swept away, and the seven people drowned by flood waters in Washington Crossing (July 15, 2023) were caused by a deluge of rain and flash flooding. “In my 44 years, I’ve never seen anything like it,” Upper Makefield Fire Chief Tim Brewer said. “When the water came up, it came up very swiftly. We do not think that anybody drove into it, that they were actively on that road when it happened.” CBS news reported, “Over 6 inches of rain in an hour caused the flash flooding according to Brewer. The fire department was dispatched in that area for a lightning strike and just by happenstance they found 11 cars. Eight people were rescued from the cars and two from the creek.”

In September of 2023, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia soaked the entire Philadelphia region with episodic downpours on Saturday, the first day of fall, conspiring to incite 60-mph wind gusts at the Shore and high-tide flooding that closed numerous roads in beach and back-bay towns.” There were up to 8 inches of rain recorded throughout the Philadelphia region over the three day event.

East Coast Atmospheric Rivers
Historically in the United States, atmospheric rivers (AR) have been associated with the West Coast. Now, AR activity is getting more attention on the East Coast. “Actually, their frequency is not really increasing. Meteorologists have used the term for decades. It has simply become popular by the media. Just like polar vortex,” said Jeff Boyne, National Weather Service meteorologist and climatologist. Indeed, “atmospheric rivers are more frequent on the East Coast than they are on the West Coast,” said Jason Cordeira, associate professor of meteorology at Plymouth State University. “They’re just not as impactful and don’t usually produce as much rainfall.”

What is changing is the research into the types and increasing intensity of East Coast AR events. “Between 1958 and 2012, the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of rainfall measured during heavy precipitation events, more than in any other region in the United States. Projections indicate continuing increases in precipitation, especially in winter and spring and in northern parts of the region,” as reported in The US Fourth National Climate Assessment.

Most types of East Coast ARs are increasing in intensity likely due to climate change. The study Identifying Eastern US Atmospheric River Types and Evaluating Historical Trends reports, “The impact of increasing moisture transport could be significant across the northeast corridor from Washington D.C. to Coastal Maine, as it increases the risk of extreme precipitation from landfalling ARs. The results indicate most ARs in the study domain are forced by extratropical cyclones, with lee side low pressure systems and coastal lows along the Atlantic Coast (e.g. nor’easters) responsible for producing the strongest ARs.”

How Fast Are Atmospheric Rivers Gaining Intensity?
Some areas of the world are now warming so fast, it is becoming more difficult to measure the change from “normal” or average. Jeff Boyne of the NWS said, “There are climate normals that are updated every 10 to 15 years, because the planet is warming so fast. The ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) regions are warming so fast that those normals are being updated every 5 years.” Overall, how fast is climate change accelerating? Rapidly. “It’s so far outside anything we’ve seen, it’s almost mind-blowing,” says Walter Meier, who monitors sea-ice with the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “September was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist, absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” said Zeke Hausfather, at the Berkeley Earth climate data project.”

— from The Reign of Violent Rain / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)

bookmark_borderPlymouth Meeting, PA and the Creation of the Climate Crisis

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by Daniel Brouse

Train Derailment in Plymouth Meeting, PA

Hypothesis

The train derailment in Plymouth Meeting (July 17, 2023) and the seven people swept away by flood waters in Washington’s Crossing (July 15, 2023) were caused in part by our forefathers’ creation and contribution to climate change. In the 1600’s and 1700’s, the United States fostered worldwide freedom, abolition, revolution, war, finance, commerce, and industry. In 1688, the American forefathers created the cradle of human induced global warming in Plymouth Meeting, PA with the establishment of a limestone quarry and limekilns.

Limekilns are used to make quicklime by cooking limestone to 1,650 ℉. Quicklime is used in fertilizer, insecticides, tanning, mortar, plaster, high-grade steel, paper, and cement. Until the creation of the limekilns in 1688, colonists crushed oyster shells to create quicklime. The quicklime industry helped fund the American Revolution and the Underground Railroad.

Decomposing limestone (CaCO3) into quicklime (burnt limestone; CaO) releases significant CO2 emissions, both from the combustion of fuel needed to heat the kiln to temperatures over 1,000°C, and by the release of CO2 from the reaction itself (CaCO3 –> CaO + CO2). Because quicklime is a key ingredient in the production of cement, as well as being used in steel, pulp-and-paper and other industries, efforts are underway to reduce the carbon footprint of this operation. — Chemical Engineering / February 1, 2022

Plymouth Meeting

Plymouth Friends Meetinghouse: birthplace of the American Revolution
The Quaker Meetinghouse (located at the corners of Butler Pike and Germantown Avenue) is where the forefathers met to plan and carry out the creation of the USA.

Across the street…
The Underground Railroad: birthplace of Freedom in the USA
“As part of the Plymouth Meeting Anti-Slavery Society they held meetings in the Plymouth Friends Meetinghouse across the street from their home.”

Head north just a bit…
Limekilns: The cradle of commerce in the USA
“Remains of an industry that began in the village of Plymouth Meeting in 1688”
The original Made in America human influencer of climate change on an industrial scale.

If you head east a bit…
Old Corson Quarry: original mine for the limekilns and site of the train derailment
Before they discovered limestone in Plymouth Meeting, colonists had to crush oyster shells. The quarry is still in use today and was purchased by Highway Materials, Inc. in 1997.

Conclusion

On a weekend in July 2023, extreme rainfall caused flash flooding that resulted in:

  • seven drowning fatalities in Washington’s Crossing, PA
  • sinkholes to develop in the carbonate rock under the railroad tracks in Plymouth Meeting causing a train derailment

The deaths and damage to infrastructure were caused in part by the culture, economics, and “cradle of climate change” created in Plymouth Meeting in 1688. Limekiln Sign in Plymouth Meeting

The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment